When domestic soccer kicks into action next weekend, there’ll be one score that teams at the top of the Premier League will be keeping an eye out for.

But it’s taking place across the North Sea in Germany.

Borussia Dortmund are currently fifth in the Bundesliga, four points behind Eintracht Frankfurt who occupy the final Champions League spot. Win next Saturday, and Dortmund will have closed that gap to a single point. Lose, and Dortmund will find themselves seven points behind with just seven games to go.

And if Borussia Dortmund fail to qualify for the Champions League, then they could find themselves in a bit of a pickle financially. Reaching the knockout stages of the Champions League is worth around $40 million in prize money alone, plus tens of millions more in broadcast revenues, sponsorship and so on. Dortmund were debt-free and in good financial shape before COVID-19 hit, but like all clubs, they took a massive hit from the lack of matchday income.

Although Dortmund are no more reliant on matchday income than other clubs, they are required to balance the books, and don’t have super-rich owners to help them out. A second hit to their finances, through failure to qualify for the Champions League, could be enough to force them to sell one or two of their key assets.

Erling Haaland has been linked with every big club in Europe. Which should be no surprise. Ranked as the second most valuable soccer player in the world by CIES Football Observatory, he’s averaging a goal a game in the Bundesliga and has already scored half as many Champions League goals as Neymar or Sergio Aguero in their careers, and he hasn’t even finished his second year in that competition yet.

Dortmund are rumored to have put a $210 million price tag on Haaland, but he also supposedly has a roughly $80 million release clause next summer, and has stated his desire to play Champions League soccer every season of his career. Even that release clause is a huge sum, but its less than half of what CIES have valued him at, and with UEFA looking to tear up its financial fair play rulebook, some Premier League clubs might still be willing to find the money to make Dortmund an offer they can’t refuse.

Jadon Sancho is the other Dortmund player in the top ten of the CIES valuation list. He’s not pulling in the same stats this season as he has in the past two seasons, but should he play on Saturday, it’ll be the 21-year-old’s 100^th Bundesliga appearance. He has managed a phenomenal 86 goal contributions in that time.

Borussia Dortmund managed to hold onto both Sancho and Haaland last summer, but could end up selling one of them this summer, even if they do qualify for the Champions League. Miss out on the Champions League, and there’s even the chance that both players could leave the club.

As well as the financial hit that Dortmund will take, the reputational hit could also damage them in the long run. A willingness to play young players and allow them to gain Champions League and Bundesliga experience at a young age is what helps Dortmund attract so many top young players. It’s what attracted players like Jadon Sancho to Dortmund in the first place, and it’s why Real Madrid were so keen to send Reinier and Achraf Hakimi on loan to the Bundesliga side.

Dortmund already have several players like Youssoufa Moukoko and Jude Bellingham who are already viewed as the ‘next big thing’, but failure to reach the Champions League could see them miss out on signing the next young starlet they plan on manufacturing into a 100 million dollar soccer machine.

Borussia Dortmund have found a bit of form recently, only losing one match, away to the unstoppable Bayern Munich, in their last nine games. But they have a much tougher run-in than Eintracht Frankfurt, which means should Dortmund lose on Saturday, that final Champions League spot could start to slip out of their grasp.