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Topline
U.S. states with shelter-in-place orders and other strict Covid-19 rules did not report fewer infections and deaths last year, a study released Thursday argues, disputing other recent research about the pandemic—but this doesn’t mean social distancing efforts were ineffective.
Masked kitchen workers pass finished plates of food to a server at Claro restaurant in New York on … [+]
Key Facts
A team of researchers from the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy found states that imposed shelter-in-place orders, mandatory business closures and other tight restrictions didn’t see a significant difference in the number of coronavirus infections or deaths during the virus’ first U.S. surge last spring.
Shelter-in-place orders also appeared to have very little impact on people’s mobility, which researchers measured using cell phone data.
However, researchers did not cast this as proof that social distancing is unnecessary: Instead, it could mean scores of Americans changed their habits regardless of whether their state imposed restrictions, often because health officials encouraged them to.
Meanwhile, the effectiveness of social distancing measures was likely reduced because some people—partly due to politics—refused to comply with these efforts even if they came with a government mandate, the researchers noted in their paper, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The team said their results “should not be taken to imply that the actions of government officials had little effect on the pandemic.”
Crucial Quote
“To be clear, our findings do not mean that sheltering in place and social distancing behaviors had no effect on the disease,” the study’s authors wrote. “Indeed, the health benefits of [shelter-in-place] orders were likely limited because many people were already social distancing before the introduction of SIP orders.”
Contra
This study contradicts two papers from last year—published in Nature and by the National Bureau of Economic Research—that found shelter-in-place orders significantly reduced Covid-19 infections in the United States and other countries, especially if they were imposed early. The University of Chicago researchers said their study reached a different conclusion because of differing methodology.
Key Background
In the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic last spring, most U.S. states closed down many non-essential businesses and encouraged people to stay home to halt the virus’ spread. These measures were politically divisive: Former President Donald Trump routinely complained about government lockdowns, some businesses deliberately disobeyed the rules, and states like Texas quickly lifted their restrictions despite warnings from public health experts.
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