Citing U.S. average daily hotel rate increases spurred by leisure demand and inflationary pressure, STR and Tourism Economics have slightly raised their U.S. lodging forecast, the companies announced Monday. 

STR and Tourism Economics now project an average 2022 daily rate of $134, up from the $130 it forecast in November 2021. The companies also project an occupancy rate of 63.8 percent, up from the 63.4 percent projected two months ago, despite the subsequent onset of the omicron variant of Covid-19. 

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STR in a statement suggested 2022 ADR on a nominal basis would exceed pre-pandemic levels, but when adjusting figures for inflation, full recovery of ADR and revenue per available room wouldn’t happen until after 2025. The company projects occupancy to reach 2019 levels in 2023. 

The discrepancy between real and nominal recovery is due to “leisure-driven” hotel rate increases, STR SVP of consulting Carter Wilson said in a statement. 

“Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom‐line hit from labor and supply shortages,” according to Wilson. “We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during Q3 and Q4.”

The companies released the new projections at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles, a conference owned by BTN parent company Northstar Travel Group. 

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