When Donald Trump came onto the scene in 2015, some analysts assumed his anti-immigrant rhetoric would be poison for Latino voters. But in 2016, Trump did no worse than Mitt Romney with that group, and possibly better (depending on which data you look at). And in 2020, Trump improved on his 2016 margin with Latino voters by five percentage points, according to the exit polls.

In 2020, President Biden won Latinos easily on the whole: 65 percent to 32 percent. But as people who watch elections know, trends and margins matter, and Latino voters aren’t a monolith who all vote the same way. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why.

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